Delhi's Wait For Monsoon To Continue As Weather Office Predicts Slow Advance

Delhi residents will have to wait a little longer for the southwest monsoon, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) saying in its latest forecast on Monday that there is no likelihood of the monsoon reaching the national capital over the next five days.

According to the IMD, conditions are favourable over the next two days for the monsoon to advance into the remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, as well as parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Over the following two to three days, it is expected to move further into more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, southeast Rajasthan and the remaining parts of Gujarat.

However, Delhi and adjoining areas do not feature in the IMD's five-day advance forecast, indicating that the monsoon's arrival in the capital is likely to be delayed by about a week. The normal date for the onset of the monsoon over Delhi is June 27.

A senior IMD scientist said a new circulation pattern is developing, which could help the southwest monsoon regain momentum after the next five days. If that happens, the monsoon could reach Delhi and other parts of northwest India around July 4.

For now, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on June 29, and over Konkan and Goa on June 29, July 2 and July 3. Similar rainfall is also likely over Madhya Maharashtra on July 2 and 3.

The monsoon's sluggish progress has resulted in a significant rainfall deficit across the country. According to the IMD, India recorded 92.2 mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 29 against the normal 157.7 mm, a shortfall of 42%.

Central India has recorded the highest rainfall deficiency at 54%, followed by east and northeast India at 41%. South Peninsular India has reported a 28% deficit, while northwest India has recorded 30% below-normal rainfall during the same period.

Meanwhile, the Centre has begun preparing for the possible impact of a weak monsoon on agriculture. Speaking exclusively to NDTV, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the government has identified 111 districts that could be severely affected by El Nino conditions, while the impact may extend to more than 300 districts.

The Agriculture Ministry and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) have jointly identified 315 districts that face a higher risk due to below-normal rainfall and inadequate irrigation.