Why Centre Can Pass Delhi Ordinance Despite Congress Backing AAP

The Centre is unlikely to face any trouble getting its ordinance on the control of Delhi's bureaucrats through Rajya Sabha, where it does not have a majority, despite the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) securing the Congress's support on the subject.

The government is currently in a strong position in Rajya Sabha, unless Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) or the YSR Congress Party of Jagan Reddy have other ideas.

Five BJP members and six Trinamool MPs are set to be elected unchallenged to 11 Rajya Sabha seats after nominations closed today without any opposing candidates. The Congress is likely to lose one seat and drop to 30 seats, while the BJP is set to gain one and bolster its count to 93.

Seven seats in the 245-member Rajya Sabha will be vacant after July 24 - four seats in Jammu and Kashmir, two nominated and one vacant seat in Uttar Pradesh.

So next week, when the monsoon session is under way, the total seats in Rajya Sabha will come down to 238 and the majority mark will be 120.

The BJP and allies in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will have 105 members.

The BJP is also confident of the support of five nominated and two independent MPs.

So, the number of members in favour of the government will be 112, which is eight short of the new majority mark.

The government also expects support from Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Janata Dal Secular and Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which have an MP each in the house.

As for the opposition, 105 members are against the Delhi Ordinance.

To clear the Rajya Sabha test, the government will need help from the BJD and YSRCP, which have nine members each.

The BJD has said it will decide when the bill to replace the Delhi ordinance comes up for discussion and voting.

The YSRCP's Jagan Reddy is also yet to reveal his decision.

Last year, both parties had walked out during a vote in Rajya Sabha on a controversial bill. This helped the government by bringing down the majority mark.

If they do the same this time, the BJP and its allies will surpass the majority mark, which will have dropped to 111.

The government will be in trouble only if the two parties vote against the bill, which does not seem likely.

The government also has the option of nominating two members to the Rajya Sabha before voting on the Delhi Ordinance, increasing its tally to 114.

The fight between the ruling BJP and the AAP government in Delhi over the control of services in the capital escalated after the Centre passed a special order to override a Supreme Court ruling that said the elected government in Delhi, not the Centre, has control over the transfer and appointments of bureaucrats.

Arvind Kejriwal turned it into a rallying point for the opposition, meeting with numerous party leaders nationwide for support and also making it a condition for AAP's participation in opposition meetings that include the Congress.