We walk a narrow and tenuous path between "ifs" and "buts" when it comes to exit poll numbers. Until the final trends emerge on October 8th, exit polls provide a lens through which we can view and assess the realm of possibilities in the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections. While exit polls for Haryana indicate a common direction, with some variation in numbers, the projections for Jammu and Kashmir lend themselves to multiple interpretations. A closer look at the projected numbers in both cases helps identify the key factors shaping the electoral politics in these two regions.

A Clear Majority For Congress In Haryana

In Haryana, the Congress is projected to secure a clear majority. While the margin of that majority differs from poll to poll, the general direction of the results appears consistent. Five factors are worth considering when analysing these trends. First, the BJP is completing two terms in office and is seeking a third. In 2019, it came to power through an alliance with a regional party, an alliance that fell apart toward the end of the five-year term. Indications suggest that Haryana witnessed a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, with state-based players largely marginalised, except in a few minor pockets.

Second, anti-incumbency sentiments against the BJP government have been discussed. However, anti-incumbency alone is not enough to unseat a government. A strong, visible, viable, and aggressive challenger is needed to capitalize on that sentiment, and the Congress seems to have played that role effectively during the campaign. Third, both the BJP and the Congress have faced internal conflicts over seat distribution, shifting political loyalties, leadership competition, and open expressions of dissent. The results will reflect which party managed these challenges more effectively. Additionally, both the BJP's and Congress's vote shares are expected to rise compared to the 2019 assembly polls, given the near two-way contest in the state, though this increase may not be fully reflected in seat shares.

A Jat-vs-Non-Jat Competition

Fourth, the state's caste dynamics may be undergoing a shift. Traditionally, there has been a Jat vs. non-Jat competition. Since 2014, the BJP has performed well among non-Jat segments, while the Jat vote has often been split between the Congress and other state players. If the exit poll trends hold, it suggests that the Congress has consolidated the Jat vote and made inroads among non-Jat segments as well. The "JAPKI" factor-Jawan (soldier), Pehalwan (wrestler), and Kisan (farmer)-would likely have worked in Congress's favour if these trends hold.

Lastly, the youth vote will be critical in Haryana. Voters under 30 have participated in elections over the past decade, and their aspirations and vision could play a decisive role in shaping the verdict.

Four Key Factors In J&K

Turning to Jammu and Kashmir, the issues are markedly different. Exit polls suggest that the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance is ahead, though many do not predict a clear majority for them.

Here, four factors are at play. First, there is a notable divergence in trends between the Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley. The BJP is strong in Jammu and is trying to establish a foothold in the Valley. Within the NC-Congress alliance, the NC dominates in the Valley, while the Congress focuses more on Jammu. The PDP, smaller state parties, and independents also have a presence in the Valley.

Second, the key focus on October 8 will be which party emerges as the single largest. Though the NC and Congress have an alliance, they contested some seats against each other, weakening their claim as a pre-poll alliance. If they collectively secure a majority, their position will be strengthened. However, if no party crosses the majority mark, the single largest party could play a crucial role in the Lieutenant Governor's decision. Additionally, if neither the BJP nor the NC-Congress alliance wins a majority, the smaller state-based parties and independents will become pivotal. How far the largest party or alliance falls from the majority will also matter.

Third, if no party or alliance reaches the halfway mark, the strategy of the PDP, other state-level players, and independents will be critical. Given that the BJP would likely win most of its seats in Jammu while these other groups would dominate in the Valley, the political dynamics of post-election support will hinge on the distinct politics of the two regions. During the campaign, these smaller players raised various issues. The question will be whether their issues align more with the BJP or the NC-Congress alliance, or if post-election politics will follow different priorities.

Finally, this is the first assembly election in a decade, and the region has seen significant changes during that time. The abrogation of Article 370 and the division of the state into two Union Territories have had far-reaching implications. The election results could be seen as a response to these changes. Additionally, the Lieutenant Governor has the authority to nominate five members to the assembly, with nominated members having the same status as elected ones. This could potentially alter the balance in terms of securing a majority.

Both elections have significant long-term implications. As the first polls following the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, their outcomes could influence the political landscape not only in the regions where the elections were held but across the country. Two more major state elections are set to follow before the end of the year, making the October 8 results the first in a series of important contests.

(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author