Kerala's Political Future To Be Decided Tomorrow, Close Contest Likely: 10 Points

Here's your 10-point cheatsheet to this story

1. Kerala has 2.71 crore voters, of whom 79.63 per cent voted across 140 constituencies on April 9. A total of 883 candidates contested. There are 140 counting centres across 43 locations, with the process scheduled to begin at 8 am tomorrow.
2. Votes polled in electronic voting machines (EVMs) from a maximum of 14 booths will be counted in each round, and a broad picture of the outcome is expected by afternoon.
3. Election Commission officials said voter-verifiable paper trail (VVPAT) slips will be counted in cases where discrepancies arise between the number of votes recorded at a booth and the figures stored in the EVMs.
4. Most exit polls predicted a close contest but gave an edge to the Congress-led UDF, which has been out of power since 2016. The election is being viewed as a do-or-die battle.
5. Buoyed by its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, assembly bypolls and local body elections, the Congress-led front is optimistic, and discussions over a possible chief ministerial candidate have already surfaced within the party.
6. The UDF will aim for a major improvement from the 41 seats it won in the 2021 assembly election, with some exit polls projecting 80-90 seats.
7. The ruling LDF pointed at forecasts of a close contest and remained hopeful of retaining power for a third consecutive term. Though matching its 2021 tally of 99 seats appears unlikely, the LDF expects to win 75-80 seats, claiming that the government's development initiatives will translate into votes.
8. A defeat for the LDF would also mark the first time since the 1960s that Left parties are no longer in power in any state in the country.
9. The BJP-led NDA sees the Kerala election as crucial to expanding its footprint in the southern state after not winning any seat in 2021. The alliance is closely watching its vote share, targeting more than 20 per cent. The NDA got 12.51 per cent vote share in the 2021 assembly election; it rose to 19.23 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
10. However, its vote share dropped to 15 per cent in the 2025 local body elections, securing 14.76 per cent. After winning the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation in the local body polls and tying up with the Twenty20 party, the NDA expects gains in the state capital district and parts of central Kerala.