Days before global leaders gather for the crucial climate talks at COP30 in Brazil, a stark new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has delivered a wake-up call - there has been progress on cutting greenhouse gases, but not nearly enough to avoid a hotter, riskier future.
The 16th annual Emissions Gap Report paints a picture of a world inching forward on climate action yet hurtling toward temperatures that could unleash widespread floods, wildfires and food shortages. Think of it as a global report card: We've improved our grade slightly, but we're failing the big test set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
If every country fully delivers on their current climate pledges (known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), the planet is projected to warm by 2.3–2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That's down from last year's estimate of 2.6–2.8 degrees Celsius.
Dig deeper, and the optimism fades:
- Current policies (what governments are actually doing right now) put us on a path to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming – better than last year's 3.1 degrees Celsius, but still catastrophic.
- Of that improvement, 0.1 degrees Celsius comes from updated calculation methods, and another 0.1 degrees Celsius will likely be wiped out by the United States' upcoming withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
- Bottom line? New pledges from countries have "barely moved the needle," as the report puts it.
To stay safely below 2 degrees Celsius (the Paris goal) or push for 1.5 degrees Celsius (the ambitious target to avoid the worst impacts), global emissions need to plummet:
- 35 per cent cut by 2035 from 2019 levels for 2 degrees Celsius.
- 55 per cent cut for 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Per the report, we're nowhere close. Emissions actually rose 2.3 per cent last year to a record 57.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. And the G20 nations – responsible for 77 per cent of global emissions – aren't even on track to meet their 2030 goals, let alone tougher 2035 ones.
The report says a temporary breach of the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is now "inevitable," likely in the next decade. This "overshoot" means average global temperatures will spike above that mark for a while, ramping up extreme weather and risks like melting ice sheets.
The good news? We can still fight back. By slashing emissions faster and deeper, we could cap the overshoot at around 0.3 degrees Celsius and claw our way back to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Every fraction of a degree we avoid saves lives, cuts economic losses, and reduces reliance on unproven tech like massive carbon-sucking machines.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres put it bluntly, "Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable... But this is no reason to surrender. It's a reason to step up and speed up."
Only about one-third of the over 190 countries in the Paris Agreement (covering 63 per cent of emissions) submitted new NDCs by the September 30 deadline. The G20? Just seven members have filed 2035 targets, and three more have announced them. Collectively, they're falling short – emissions from the group even ticked up 0.7 per cent in 2024.
Luckily, clean energy is booming. Solar and wind costs are plunging, and renewables are surging for reasons beyond climate – think energy security, cheaper bills, and jobs. As expert Richard Black from Ember noted, "The evidence is now convincing that the clean energy economy offers more opportunities than sticking with the fossil fuel model."
India has not yet submitted its updated 2035 NDC as of November, placing it among major emitters like China and the EU that missed the September 30 deadline, with only one-third of Paris Agreement countries (covering 63 per cent of emissions) filing on time.
India, however, is on track to overachieve its current 2030 targets—having already hit 50 per cent non-fossil power capacity five years early and poised to exceed its 45 per cent emissions-intensity reduction goal—despite a 6.1 per cent emissions spike in financial year 2023-24 that contributed to global emissions reaching a record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024.
As the world's third-largest emitter and a G20 member responsible for 7 per cent of global emissions, India's delay limits progress toward the 55 per cent cut needed by 2035 for 1.5 degrees Celsius, yet its booming renewables, low per-capita emissions (2.9 tCO₂e), and expected COP30 submission — likely conditional on climate finance — position it to strengthen ambition if developed nations deliver onfunding promises.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stated, “Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target. But it is still possible. Proven solutions already exist. Now is the time for countries to go all in."
Reactions poured in from experts:
- Rachel Cleetus (Union of Concerned Scientists): "This report's findings are alarming, enraging and heart-breaking. World leaders still have the power to act decisively."
- Catherine Abreu (ICPH): "It isn't the Paris Agreement that's failing - it's a handful of powerful countries in the G20. COP30 has to deliver an unambiguous signal, now is not the time to retreat, it's the time to accelerate."
Since the Paris climate agreement was signed in 2015, projected warming has dropped from 3–3.5 degrees Celsius, thanks to better tech and some real action. Wind and solar are cheaper than ever, methane leaks can be plugged quickly, and green transitions promise economic wins.
The catch? Geopolitics, funding gaps for poorer nations, and outdated global finance systems are huge roadblocks. The report urges a "massive ramp up" from big emitters, especially the G20.
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