Pollution, Climate Change Drive Caspian Sea Towards Shrinkage

The Caspian Sea, the world's largest inland body of water, is facing a significant decline in levels due to damming, over-extraction, pollution and climate change. Shared by five countries — Kazakhstan, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkmenistan — the vital resource supports fishing, farming, tourism and drinking water supplies, in addition to housing valuable oil and gas reserves.

However, experts warn the delicate balance of water input from rivers and rainfall against evaporation is being increasingly disrupted, pushing the Caspian Sea towards a potentially irreversible reduction in size.

Khashayar Javanmardi, a photographer, has observed alarming pollution levels in the once-pristine waters of the Caspian Sea. “I cannot swim anymore...the water changed,” he told CNN, highlighting the environmental crisis.

The Caspian Sea, with a coastline of over 6,437 km, has played a major role in regulating the local climate, contributing moisture and rainfall to the arid lands of Central Asia.

While global sea levels may rise, the Caspian relies on a precarious balance of inflow and evaporation, increasingly skewed by warming temperatures. With its water levels falling significantly since the mid-1990s, experts like Matthias Prange, an Earth systems modeller at the University of Bremen, warn that projections indicate a potential decline of between 8 to 30 metres (26 to 98 feet) by the century's end, reported CNN.

Another research indicates that water levels in the Caspian Sea could decline by as much as 30 metres (98 feet) by 2100. Even in more hopeful projections regarding climate change, the northern regions of the sea, particularly those surrounding Kazakhstan, are likely to vanish entirely, according to Joy Singarayer, a professor of palaeoclimatology at the University of Reading and a co-author of the study.

This raises serious concerns for the five countries dependent on the sea for their economies and environmental stability. A diminished Caspian would not only affect fishing and tourism but could also lead to geopolitical tensions. As nations compete for dwindling resources, it may lead to “a race to extract more water,” Singarayer told CNN.

The region's unique wildlife is already suffering. The Caspian Sea is home to several endangered species, including the wild sturgeon, which provides the bulk of the world's caviar. As water levels drop and pollution rises, these species face an uncertain future, with scientists fearing that this ecological crisis may lead to irreversible losses.

Efforts to address the Caspian Sea's plight are hampered by the political instability and competing interests of the five bordering nations. Environmental experts caution that without collaborative action, the situation could lead to the tragic decline of the Aral Sea. As global leaders prepare for the upcoming COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month, the urgency of addressing the challenges facing the Caspian Sea becomes increasingly apparent.

As photographer Javanmardi captures images of the Caspian coastline, highlighting the polluted waters, receding shores and barren seabeds, he emphasises, “This is the biggest lake in the world. All people should consider it as something important.”