Immigration Vs Inflation: Which Issue Could Swing The US Midterm Elections?

Immigration and inflation are the two issues that carried US President Donald Trump back to the White House in 2024. Two years on, both have turned into tests of his record as Americans vote in Tuesday's midterm elections.

Polls suggest inflation is the bigger concern, but immigration remains the issue that most energises each party's core voters.

Why These Two Issues

Trump is not on the ballot, but the midterms decide who controls Congress, which writes laws and approves spending. If Republicans lose a chamber, his agenda stalls. Immigration and the cost of living were central to his campaign, so both are now measured against promises he made.

ALSO READ | Five Issues That Could Decide Trump's Midterm Fate

Inflation: Where It Stands

Inflation is the rate at which prices rise. When it goes up, the same salary buys less. US annual inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, and core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 2.6%.

Fuel is driving it. Petrol prices rose 34.2% over the year, tied to disruptions from the US-Iran war. The national average petrol price was $4.33 a gallon in September, against $3.16 a year earlier in early October. One US gallon is about 3.8 litres.

Voters are noticing. An NBC News poll found 48% of voters called inflation and the cost of living the most important issue, and 62% disapproved of Trump's handling of it. In a September Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living.

Republicans point to tax cuts and say energy costs will fall once the Iran conflict ends. Many voters, however, are judging by prices they pay today.

Immigration: Trump's Signature Issue

Trump promised mass deportations, and his administration has pursued them through Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the federal agency that arrests and removes people living in the US illegally. The picture in polls is mixed.

A January New York Times/Siena poll found roughly half of voters supported Trump's deportations and border handling, but 63% disapproved of how ICE was doing its job, including 70% of independents. That poll followed an ICE agent's fatal shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis during a raid.

Supporters see it differently. One poll of 1,004 likely midterm voters, reported on Fox host Sean Hannity's site, found 61% support deportations against 34% opposed, though support softens when deportations seem indiscriminate.

Republicans remain overwhelmingly supportive of Trump's immigration agenda and ICE, while independents could complicate the midterms.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 52% were less likely to back a candidate who supports Trump's approach to deportations, against 42% more likely.

ALSO READ | US Midterm Elections 2026: What Are They, When Are They Held And Why Do They Matter?

How They Compare

Inflation touches nearly every household, every week. Immigration is felt in some communities more than others, yet it moves feelings strongly. An Emerson poll found 40% of likely voters named the economy as their top issue, against 12% for immigration.

Immigration works as a base-mobiliser, helping both parties drive turnout, while inflation appeals to the undecided. Independents often decide close races, and they currently disapprove of both Trump's handling of prices and of ICE.

What To Watch

Polls are snapshots, not results. Turnout in swing districts will matter most, and Republicans argue enforcement and border control remain strengths. Final results may take days. October's inflation data is not due until November 10, after the vote.