Israel Eyes Tougher US Stance On Iran, Potential Peace Deals Under Trump

Israel expects the incoming Trump administration to take a hard line against Iran and its nuclear ambitions, which will create an opportunity for more peace deals with Arab neighbors, a senior member of Israel's security cabinet said.

Energy Minister Eli Cohen, in an interview with Reuters, also said that Israel is closer than ever to reaching an agreement to end fighting in Lebanon and push Iran-backed Hezbollah away from the border, while insisting that Israel maintains the right to act military should it be violated.

Israel has been in a multi-front war since Hamas, which is also supported by Iran, launched its assault from Gaza on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah began attacking the following day. Israel in turn started a devastating air and ground campaign in Gaza and, in recent months, intensified its operation in southern Lebanon.

Iranian-backed militias have frequently fired on Israel from Yemen and Iraq, and Israel and Iran have traded direct blows.

Cohen said that incoming US President Donald Trump has been appointing senior staff who "certainly support determined action against Iran".

"The period of Trump's previous administration was characterized by greater regional stability," he said. "Towards the end of his presidency, the sanctions on Iran were close to making Iran to change its behavior on the nuclear issue."

"So we certainly hope and believe that the Trump administration's policy will continue that, and first and foremost, we see the most central issue is acting assertively against Iran."

During his campaign, Trump said that President Joe Biden's policy of not rigorously enforcing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, allowing it to sell oil, accumulate cash and expand its nuclear pursuits and influence through armed militias.

Trump has tapped US Senator Marco Rubio, an advocate of muscular foreign policy on Iran, for secretary of state. Mike Waltz, who is slated to become national security adviser, has also pushed for a tougher stance.

"We think he (Trump) is targeting the bottom line. To rein in the threatening actors and create new regional alliances that are very important," Cohen said.

NUCLEAR DISPUTE

In 2018, as president and with support from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump withdrew from a multi-national deal aimed at preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb. Washington then reimposed sanctions to force Tehran into talks on a broader agreement addressing its missiles and support for regional proxies.

Iran denies ever having a nuclear weapons programme, though Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that if it wanted to world leaders "wouldn't be able to stop us".

Israel is widely believed to have a nuclear arsenal but has never confirmed nor denied this, maintaining a policy of ambiguity on the issue for decades.

Also during Trump's first term, Israel signed the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which normalized ties with Muslim countries including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Israel hopes to forge a similar deal with Saudi Arabia, which says it will not normalize ties with Israel unless it includes at least the pathway to a Palestinian state.

Regarding fighting in Lebanon, Cohen said: "I think we are at a point that we are closer to an arrangement than we have been since the start of the war."

A key sticking point for Israel, he said, is ensuring it retains freedom of action should Hezbollah return to border areas.

"We will be less forgiving than in the past over attempts to create strongholds in territory near Israel. That's how we will be, and so that is certainly how we will act."

In terms of a mechanism to enforce the agreement, Cohen said: "There are discussions, but it has not been agreed upon."

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