US Elections 2024: How Swing States Have Shaped Past Poll Outcomes

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race for the White House. While millions of Americans have cast their ballot, many are still at polling stations exercising their franchise. Early election trends suggest the Republicans have an edge over the Democrats, but they say nothing is over until the swing states deliver their verdict. Like in the past, seven crucial swing states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - are expected to play a major role in deciding the next president.

Trump has a slender lead in Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Harris leads in Michigan. Pennsylvania remains nearly tied, and the votes of the rest of the swing states are yet to be counted.

In Swing states, also called battleground states, the support for both parties is evenly matched. These states, unlike others that lean towards one party or another, remain political wildcards. Over the past few decades, they have shifted back and forth between the Republicans and Democrats, making them key to any presidential race.  

Here's how the seven swing states have voted in the past:

Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)

Arizona was solidly Republican for decades but flipped to blue in 2020, with Joe Biden winning by a slim margin.

• 2000: Republican (51.0 per cent)
• 2004: Republican (54.9 per cent)
• 2008: Republican (53.6 per cent)
• 2012: Republican (53.7 per cent)
• 2016: Republican (48.7 per cent)
• 2020: Democratic (49.4 per cent)

Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)

Georgia voted Republican for years but switched to blue in 2020, with Joe Biden winning by just 0.2 percentage points.

• 2000: Republican (54.7 per cent)
• 2004: Republican (58.0 per cent)
• 2008: Republican (52.2 per cent)
• 2012: Republican (53.3 per cent)
• 2016: Republican (50.8 per cent)
• 2020: Democratic (49.3 per cent)

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes)

North Carolina typically votes Republican but threw its electoral weight behind Barack Obama in 2008. Donald Trump won it in 2016 and 2020.

• 2000: Republican (56.0 per cent)
• 2004: Republican (56.0 per cent)
• 2008: Democrat (49.7 per cent)
• 2012: Republican (50.4 per cent)
• 2016: Republican (49.8 per cent)
• 2020: Republican (49.9 per cent)

Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)

In the last three elections, Nevada has remained Democratic, voting for Obama in two successive elections, followed by Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. The state voted for George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

• 2000: Republican (49.5 per cent)
• 2004: Republican (50.5 per cent)
• 2008: Democrat (55.2 per cent)
• 2012: Democrat (52.4 per cent)
• 2016: Democrat (47.9 per cent)
• 2020: Democrat (50.1 per cent)

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes)

Pennsylvania voted Democratic for years until Trump won it in 2016. Biden wrested it in 2020.

• 2000: Democrat (50.6 per cent)
• 2004: Democrat (50.9 per cent)
• 2008: Democrat (54.5 per cent)
• 2012: Democrat (52.0 per cent)
• 2016: Republican (48.2 per cent)
• 2020: Democrat (50.0 per cent)

Michigan (15 Electoral Votes)

Michigan voted Democratic for years until it backed Trump in 2016. Biden reclaimed it in 2020.

• 2000: Democrat (51.3 per cent)
• 2004: Democrat (51.2 per cent)
• 2008: Democrat (57.4 per cent)
• 2012: Democrat (54.2 per cent)
• 2016: Republican (47.5 per cent)
• 2020: Democrat (50.6 per cent)

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

Wisconsin was solidly Democratic until Trump won in 2016. Biden won it back in 2020.

• 2000: Democrat (47.8 per cent)
• 2004: Democrat (49.7 per cent)
• 2008: Democrat (56.2 per cent)
• 2012: Democrat (52.8 per cent)
• 2016: Republican (47.2 per cent)
• 2020: Democrat (59.5 per cent)