Can 'Vote Chori' Campaign Lead To Bihar Win For INDIA Bloc? A SWOT Analysis

The RJD-Congress combine-led opposition INDIA bloc, which ran a feisty 'vote chori' campaign to allege the BJP of manipulating votes to change the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, will be in a direct contest with the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in next month's high-stakes Assembly elections in Bihar.

The Election Commission on Monday announced a two-phase polls in the state, with voting to be held on November 6 and 11, and counting scheduled on November 14.

A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of INDIA bloc-led by RJD-Congress combine.

STRENGTHS

• The RJD enjoys a solid and loyal Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote base, which together accounts for nearly 30 per cent of the electorate.
• With RJD founder Lalu Prasad taking a back seat, the party has projected his son Tejashwi Yadav as its undisputed leader. Tejashwi, a former deputy chief minister, has gained significant traction among the state's youth.
• Congress' Voter Adhikar Yatra, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, has energised party workers across the state.

WEAKNESSES

• RJD, the largest constituent of the INDIA bloc, is largely controlled by Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi Yadav and their immediate family members who are caught in legal wrangles like the land for jobs scam which is being probed by ED.
• Despite Tejashwi's acceptance among party cadre, tantrums thrown by siblings like Tej Pratap Yadav and other members of the Yadav family have often forced the RJD supremo's heir apparent to focus his attention more on managing his family than running the party and alliance partners.

OPPORTUNITIES

• With a young leader like Tejashwi at the helm, the INDIA bloc can look for a complete image makeover. He also seized the opportunity to project himself as a man sensitive to the state's crying need for job creation and also raising the issue of migration and law and order situation.
• Although the ruling NDA takes claim for the caste survey conducted by the state government two years ago, the RJD was sharing power when the exercise was followed by a hike in quotas for all deprived communities, something it can electorally cash in on given its "Mandal" credentials.
• An alliance with like-minded parties like Congress and the CPI(ML) Liberation and Nitish Kumar's abrupt return to NDA may help the RJD and its allies in garnering the entire chunk of Muslim votes.

THREATS

• Having been out of power for a significant period, managing ambitious leaders within the party and keeping the alliance cohesive pose major challenges for the INDIA bloc.  

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